It was a season to forget for the Tampa Bay (Toronto) Raptors, who will miss the playoffs for the first time since the 2013-14 season in a year where there were an extra two playoff spots up for grabs. There are a variety of excuses that fans have at their disposal when explaining away a painful and frustrating campaign: injuries to key players, the COVIDpocalypse around the All-Star game, playing in another city-nay-COUNTRY without fans and the missing the comforts of home. Despite the odds being stacked against them-and some truly putrid fourth quarter play this year- Raptors fans can be satisfied with the effort and heart that their team showed through it all. But if The North is looking for more reasons to be optimistic, here are 5 tangible takeaways to be excited about for the next season:
1. The Emergence of Chris Boucher
By now, there are very few who haven’t fallen in love with Slim Duck. His journey from the streets of Montreal to the NBA is an incredible achievement, and there is still room for his ceiling to grow. Boucher had a marvelous season, more than doubling his points per game from 6.6 in 2020 to 13.6 this year on greater efficiency, shooting nearly 52% from the field and 39% from three. His advanced numbers have improved as well, with both his Win Share and Value Over Replacement totals nearly doubling (WS 3.8->6.1 and VORP 0.8->1.8) at a similar usage rate. The most impressive statistic of all for Chris is that he is ranked 23rd in Player Efficiency Rating, ahead of top players like Chris Paul, Paul George, and Zach Lavine. Beyond the numbers though, Boucher provides an aerial athleticism and excitement that Raptors fans have not seen from a big since Lucas “Bebe” Nogueira. Using a high motor to catch lobs and block threes has helped Boucher endear himself to Raptors faithful, and he has shown flashes of being able to do more. This season, Boucher has been able to attack closeouts by slower, clunkier bigs and use his length to hit mid-range jumpers. The most apparent weakness in Boucher’s game is his defense, where his eagerness to block shooters and drivers leads to a missed rotation or blow-by, ending in easy points for the opposition. As the NBA continues to move towards smaller and more skilled lineups, Boucher will see a lot of time at the 5 and will need to be able to switch onto guards and wings. For the Raptors to return to contention in 2021-2022, look for Boucher to improve defensively as a communicator and by keeping his feet on the floor where he can disrupt these perimeter players with his length.
2. Pascal Siakam’s Continued Growth
In only his SECOND SEASON as a number one option on a team that has only experienced success and winning during his tenure, Pascal Siakam has had predictable bumps in the road. His scoring is down from 22.9 to 21.4ppg and his drop in three-point shooting has been strikingly apparent, down from 36% to 30% from last season. The most glaring grievances that fans will point to are his fourth quarter performances, where Pascal has seemed to produce mistakes in critical moments. For the Raptors to have success next season, he will need to shoot better than 46% from the field and 19% from three in this quarter. There are positive signs though. When comparing Spicy P’s raw stats to last year where he was named to the All-NBA second team, they are surprisingly similar. Further, there are metrics that fans can reference in order to seek solace from Siakam’s struggles in the fourth quarter. Firstly, Siakam’s assist numbers are up a full assist from last year, from 3.5 to 4.5 per game. This is a sign that Siakam’s playmaking has improved. Defenses (primarily started by the Celtics) have lived with one-on-one matchups with Siakam and have rarely brough double teams, meaning that Siakam’s assists are not coming from easy dishes out of a double team. He has become a better creator in the lane, dumping off to centers or flicking in out to open shooters in the corner. I believe this total would have been a whole assist higher if he hadn’t been passing to Aron Baynes for the first half of the season. With a competent center rotation and more reps as a distributor, look for Siakam to set a new career high in assists in 2022. The other source of optimism regarding Siakam’s play is his new career mark at the charity stripe. Siakam’s free throw percentage is up nearly 4% to 83%. Shooting free throws is a positive indicator of improved touch and, for Siakam, will hopefully translate into his three-point shooting returning to his career average. When Pascal is a threat from outside, it opens his creativity in the lane as a passer and a finisher. Finally, Siakam is a force on the defensive end when he is engaged and not carrying the offensive load. His size and length are incredibly disruptive to opposing offenses, which raises his ceiling and enables him to contribute even when he isn’t scoring (which is something fans always picked on Demar for). PSkills has made enormous strides from the NBA G-League to the Most Improved Player of the year to an All-NBA talent, and Raps fans should be enthusiastic about his potential to grow into a superstar after another full season of seeing the best effort defenses around the NBA have to offer.
3. Nick Nurse Helping Rookies Settle into their Roles
Many have their gripes with Nick Nurse’s decision making this season. However, given the circumstances of this season and the endless lineup combinations that the Raptors coaching staff have had to deploy, the case can be made that he has only improved his reputation around the Association. With a full training camp and pre-season schedule to integrate newer players into a constantly vacillating defensive system, the Raptors will be able to re-establish themselves as a franchise that can maximize the value of their players. And let’s be honest, there is a ton of value to derive from these younger ones. Malachi Flynn, Freddy Gillespie, and Jalen Harris have gotten a huge bump in playing time to finish out the season as the Raptors hide their starters with “injuries”. Flynn is the most polished and has the highest expectations of the three, with good reason. He was named the Eastern Conference Rookie of Month in April, averaging 13p/5a/4r/1.5s and 41% shooting from behind the arc. There were moments in that month where Flynn was the only Raptor who could create his own shot reliably, resulting in a 9th place standing in fourth quarter scoring late into April. He will be relied on heavily to take the pressure off Fred Van Vleet (and Kyle if he stays), who finished 3rd in minutes per game this season. Raps fans should be optimistic about his ability to do so. Jalen Harris was the Raptors second round pick from last year’s NBA Draft, and his stock has risen due to his recent play down the final stretch of the season. It should be taken with a measure of caution though, as the level of competition has tapered off in the final weeks and there is no pressure on Jalen to play within a regularly structured offense. You can see why the Raptors made the selection; Jalen is 6-5 and 195 pounds, with a scoring game that can come from all three levels. This scoring has shone through over his last few games, with 16 against Memphis, 17 against the Bulls, and a career-high 31 against the Mavs (making him the 10th Raptor to score 30pts in a game this season). There is the possibility for Jalen Harris to carve out a solid bench role on this Toronto team in the years to come. Finally, we arrive at Freddy Gillespie, who has quickly garnered the adoration of Raptors fans due to his hustle, rim-protection, and singing skills. Freddy G was a standout player for the Memphis Hustle in the G-League Bubble, and the Raptors scouting team did a great job to recognize his potential and sign him to a contract. From there, Freddy has challenged all comers at the rim and has energized the Raptors bench unit with competent and physical center play. Averaging 5p and 4r on 56% shooting has more than earned him another shot at cracking the main rotation of the Toronto Raptors next season along with Khem Birch and Chris Boucher. Raps fans should be eager to watch Freddy swat shots and pull out the dance moves in the 2021-2022 season.
4. Mid-Season Acquisitions
The trade deadline marked a pivotal moment for the Raptors in deciding the future direction of the franchise. Kyle Lowry was shopped around to the Sixers, Heat, and Lakers. However, those teams held on to young assets like Tyler Herro, Matisse Thybulle, and Talen Horton Tucker. So, the Raptors pivoted, and moved their explosive shooting guard Norman Powell for a younger shooting guard to fill Norm’s exact role: Gary Trent Jr. Trent is 5 years younger than Norm, but his offensive repertoire is far more advanced for his age than his predecessor’s. Early in his Toronto tenure, Trent Jr dropped 44 points on 17 of 19 shooting against the Cavs, then followed it up with a game-winning, buzzer beating three over a flopping Raul Neto and the Washington Wizards. Gary Trent Jr boasts a larger and longer frame that could develop into higher defensive upside than Norm, in addition to a level of shot creation that has hardcore basketball fans salivating. It appears that Masai and Bobby have swung another smart trade by adding a core piece that fits better with the future window of the Raptors. The other less notable transaction has provided Toronto with arguably more value this season. After the Orlando Magic waived Canadian backup center Khem Birch, it was a perfect storm for him to join the only Canadian franchise, who was in desperate need of his services. Birch needed an opportunity to carve out a true role for himself on an NBA team after being crammed amongst a Magic team with seemingly too much length and too many centers. The Raptors needed a center who could rebound and finish around the rim at an average level. Yes, average. Since making the move, Birch thrived, averaging 11 and 8 on 57% shooting while adding 1.3 blocks per game. It was a breath of fresh air for Raptors fans who had watched Aron Baynes brick lay ups and Chris Boucher get bullied on the boards. Birch has built a strong case to be considered for the starting center role next season, but at the bare minimum, he is a quality player who provides value for the Raptors when he is on the floor. Fans should look forward to a Canadian frontcourt next season of Birch and Boucher when they are being maximized by the playmaking of Freddy V and Malachi.
5. The Return to the 6ix
“Tampa Bay Raptors” was a cute nickname for about 1 week. Then, it settled in that the players would be playing in a completely different city and country, living in a completely different house and environment, with completely different pre-game travel and routines. It had a noticeable effect early in the Raptors season when they started 2-8 and continued to take its toll as they attempted to dig themselves out of that hole. When every game feels like an away game, it is extremely difficult to bring your best effort every night. Have hope fellow fans, as the 2021-2022 season will most likely see the Toronto Raptors return home to Scotiabank Arena, where they have a combined record of 152-54 over the last 5 seasons. There are few fanbases that get as loud and raucous as a Toronto home crowd, from deafening levels inside of the arena to Jurassic Park just outside. Being back in the comforts of their own homes, with their own practice and game facilities, and the support of an entire nation behind them, the Raptors will ride the North’s momentum into some memorable moments in the upcoming season.
Bonus:
In addition to these five, there are plenty of other reasons for optimism in Toronto. I haven’t even begun to discuss the opportunity that the Raptors have with their first top 10 pick since selecting Jakub Poeltl with the 9th pick in 2015. The top-heavy 2021 class has prospects who will contribute instantly to a competitive NBA franchise. The Raptors have a 30% chance of locking up a top five pick, which could turn into another stud to add to their young core of Pascal, OG, Steady Freddy, Gary Trent, Boucher, and Flynn. Another way Masai and Bobby could add to the young foundation of this Raptors team is through the dealing of Kyle Lowry. According to the Sam Amick of the Athletic, the Philadelphia 76ers have already expressed interest in a sign-and-trade for Lowry in the offseason, and they would not be the only suitor. The Raptors could be looking for packages that include a top prospect like Tyrese Maxey or Matisse Thybulle in a deal for KLow, which is a thrilling proposition for fans who appreciate the two-way culture this team has built over the past 8 seasons.
Toronto’s brass has several solid options in front of them going into the offseason, and Raps fans should be excited about what this team could be as soon as next season in the 6ix.
